Wednesday, December 5, 2012

Big Pussy Cat to Emerging Tiger - Philippines

The Philippines peso (PHP) is hitting close to a 5 year high in valuation when compared to the US-dollar (USD). On December 5, 2012, the peso closed at 40.85 PHP. The peso is now anchored by low inflation running at 2.8% (November 2012), a country very rich in natural resources (energy and mineral resources) and spearheaded by very competent political management under the leadership of President Aquino.

This is quite a currency appreciation move by the PHP. In August 2009, the peso was trading at 48.25 PHP to the USD, a gain of almost 16% when compared to today's valuation.

Keep your eye on the Philippines. Although vulnerable to typhoons as witnessed with yesterday's tragic storm strike on Eastern Mindanao Island (southern Philippines), the country is vibrant, economic growth is strong. Expect to see the political leaders to continue to invest in energy infrastructure, roads, health & education whilst maintaining a balance with the environment and industry growth in mining, energy and manufacturing sectors.

This time, the peso may very well continue to appreciate even further neglecting previous cyclical trading cycles. A more prosperous Philippines in the years is inevitable, indeed, an emerging tiger rooted in the country's rich natural resources.

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Friday, November 2, 2012

Travel: Look for Cheap Currency - TURKEY New Lira

In search of a place to travel that provides affordability, culture and a terrific climate. Look no further then the Republic of Turkey, situated as the gateway between Europe and Asia. Turkey is a democratic, secular nation that currently provides foreign tourists with a very cheap currency.

Why spend a fortune within European Union member countries such as France, Germany that function on the expensive Euroland euro (EUR) currency when one can enjoy a tremendous currency advantage with Turkey's cheap currency, the Turkish New Lira.

In January 2008, the Turkish new lira was trading at 1.175 TRY to 1 US dollar (USD). Today, almost 5 years later the new lira has dramatically declined in value to 1.8026 TRY to 1 USD. As measured by purchasing power parity, the TRY stands at 45 percent undervalued to the USD.

If you like Mediterranean climate, historical culture, beautiful scenery, exotic beach resorts and an inexpensive currency, take a look at Turkey!

Monday, March 26, 2012

Japanese Yen close to cyclical turn?

For decades during a time of rapid economic growth and a debt deflationary period since 1990, the yen has steadily appreciated in value from the 360 JPY to the USD in 1949 to as high as 76.72 JPY to the USD recently in October 2011. Are we now at a major cyclical turning point for the yen? thinks so. We think the yen will now enter a multi - year phase of modest depreciation. Not a crash, but a gradual slow period of declining currency valuations as the Japanese authorities try to nudge inflation to positive rates from modest deflationary measures. The good news is that the Japanese stock market may now turn into a bullish era as well from a devastating 20 year bear market.

Taxes remain on the whole quite low in Japan, they have room to move here to raise badly needed revenues to begin the process of bringing down the national gross debt which is out of control at over 200 percent of GDP. Not an entirely desperate situation as most of the debt is internally held by Japanese but a concern. Rating agencies have taken notice and put Japan on currency watch. These macro-economic challenges along with a declining population have the earmarks of modest yen currency decline in the years ahead. At present, the yen is approximately 35 percent overvalued to the USD as measured by purchasing power parity.

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